He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. You have to take the lesser of two evils. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. Jim Hoft. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Vance. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. SACRAMENTO . These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. And it can happen.. He is his own worst enemy.. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. What you need to know, summarized in one email. This includes personalizing content and advertising. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. I think it worked out without me.. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. . I find that hard to believe. This claim is basically absurd. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Required fields are marked *. 2016 Trump. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. It will cycle through. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. By Cara Ding. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Your email address will not be published. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Port Clinton, Ohio. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. I dont listen to the news. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. I dont watch TV. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Peoples common sense level is cooked. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Two states have announced recounts. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I am under that impression. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. It was easy. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Please read our comments policy before commenting. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. He loves this country. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. That is a very good thing to have. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. 'I Should Start Voting'. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. He says Democratic Gov. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. Im not happy with the way things are now. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Theyre scared. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. On . July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Its just not that great, Paul said. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. He didnt vote in 2016 either. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. We believe that there are two main reasons. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. We dont want it, she said. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Its too big. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Pre-performance Lobby events. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. At least Biden is honest, he said. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red.